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Blog Post
June 05, 2024
Addressing the unprecedented levels of irregular migration requires a fundamental shift in understanding the problem: People come whenever there are jobs to be filled in the American economy. It is true today, and it has been true for decades. That is main finding from my new study analyzing nearly ...
WORKING PAPERS
June 05, 2024
This study investigates the link between Southwest US border crossings and labor market tightness, measured by the job openings to unemployed ratio, over nearly 25 years (2000–2023). Analyzing monthly data, it finds a strong positive correlation, suggesting that increased border crossings align with...
WORKING PAPERS
February 08, 2024
While labor market impacts of refugees in low- and middle-income countries are commonly studied, public services like education could also be affected by mass arrivals. This paper examines the impact of Syrian refugees on the educational outcomes of Jordanians. Combining detailed household surveys w...
Blog Post
December 14, 2023
The US labor market has changed a lot since 1991, but the federal list of shortage occupations, which impacts employers and immigrant workers alike, has not. Now, for the first time in decades, the US Department of Labor (DOL) will soon be seeking information on how the Schedule A shortage occupatio...
Blog Post
November 08, 2023
How stable do emerging markets look now, in 2023? Which countries would be most and least resilient if another global adverse shock were to happen? A simple indicator constructed from a small set of economic and institutional variables was able to identify in 2019, prior to the COVID-19 pandemic and...
WORKING PAPERS
February 21, 2023
Immigration policy can have important net fiscal effects that vary by immigrants’ skill level. But mainstream methods to estimate these effects are problematic. Methods based on cash-flow accounting offer precision at the cost of bias; methods based on general equilibrium modeling address bias with ...
Blog Post
February 07, 2023
President Biden is scheduled to deliver his second State of the Union address tonight. Historically, these speeches have focused on domestic policy and leading national security issues, yielding limited airtime for international development. But, on occasion, past presidents of both parties have spo...
WORKING PAPERS
January 23, 2023
The US limits work visas for low-skill jobs outside of agriculture, with a binding quota that firms access via a randomized lottery. We evaluate the marginal impact of the quota on firms entering the 2021 H-2B visa lottery using a novel survey and pre-analysis plan. Firms exogenously authorized to e...
POLICY PAPERS
January 19, 2023
The Middle East and North Africa (MENA) is addicted to fossil fuels, like the rest of the world. An energy transition will require a coordinated global shift in both the supply and demand for fossil fuels and cleaner energy, and multilateral institutions can play an important role. These institution...