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Blog Post
March 06, 2023
I'm not a huge fan of arbitrary lines through country income levels to create income thresholds. That is because there is no obvious clustering of countries within the global (country-level) income distribution, and moving from one income status to another does not correlate with trend breaks or end...
Blog Post
March 06, 2023
In a new paper, Zack Gehan and I present scenarios for the global economy in 2050. These scenarios build on a forecast of economic growth built around income, population, education, and temperature. The process suggests a considerable degree of uncertainty about how the world will look in three de...
Blog Post
March 06, 2023
The Sustainable Development Goals commit the world to ending extreme poverty by 2030. More cautiously, the World Bank’s twin goals suggest it can help reduce extreme poverty to 3 percent by 2030. Neither goal can be accomplished unless the extreme poverty line is (finally) fixed rather than constant...
Blog Post
March 06, 2023
Forecasts of the future shape of the global economy, if they are at least somewhat accurate, can help planning and policy discussions in areas from global governance through business expansion plans. At the same time, this relies on forecasts in fact being somewhat accurate, and it’s a cliché that p...
Blog Post
August 25, 2022
The Russian invasion of Ukraine has created a historic lacuna for European security. A neglected dimension of the wider security conversation is the war’s consequences for global health security. We map these emerging threats from food insecurity to radiation risks, and call for the immediate develo...
Blog Post
August 03, 2022
Ukraine’s dire financing situation is front and center in the debate over how the world will weather the war being waged by Russia. The IMF will play an important role in extending credit to Ukraine directly, but the institution is also being used a conduit for other countries’ assistance. In this b...
Blog Post
May 10, 2022
Pretty much everyone following the war in Ukraine has seen satellite imagery of Russian convoys trundling across Ukraine, or read about Elon Musk’s delivery of 5,000+ Starlink satellite-internet receivers. News reports are backed up by a wealth of satellite data, which has short-circuited Russia’s a...
Blog Post
April 05, 2022
Ukraine has close to $2.7 billion in principal and interest payments due to the World Bank and IMF in 2022. The government of Ukraine should not be expected to repay its debt to the international financial institutions (IFIs) while it is mobilizing all its resources to fend off the Russian invasion...
CGD NOTES
March 29, 2022
IMF and World Bank 2022 growth projections for emerging markets and developing economies (EMDEs), released in January this year, were not encouraging. They found that deteriorated macroeconomic fundamentals, partly resulting from policy responses to the pandemic, deep institutional deficiencies, and...