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Blog Post
September 22, 2023
We’ve updated our 2022 working paper with Laura Moscoviz on long run trends in education quality with several new surveys from around the world. Notably, a new survey round for India (NFHS-5) casts doubt on earlier data (NFHS-3). Dropping the suspect data, India’s current learning levels are unchang...
Oct
27
2022
3:30—5:00 PM Eastern Time (US and Canada)
October 21, 2022
There are signs that India’s growth boom has stalled, and the pace of monetary poverty reduction decelerated. The Modi government has responded with what Arvind Subramanian has called "the new welfarism," involving massive public spending on essentially private goods and services like bank accounts,...
Blog Post
April 19, 2022
Has the Modi government accelerated or decelerated poverty reduction? It’s hard to know, as India has effectively stopped measuring poverty. A new World Bank paper using private-sector survey data finds the share of people living below $1.90 per day has been falling, but is higher than we thought, a...
WORKING PAPERS
July 20, 2021
India lacks an authoritative estimate of the death toll from the COVID-19 pandemic. We report excess mortality estimates from three different data sources from the pandemic’s start through June 2021. Estimating COVID-deaths with statistical confidence may prove elusive. But all estimates suggest tha...
Blog Post
July 20, 2021
The official Covid death count in India as of end-June 2021 is 400,000. The reality is, of course, catastrophically worse. Unlike in other countries, authoritative excess death estimates based on official data have not been available because government recording of deaths, especially at the center, ...