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CGD NOTES
May 14, 2024
This note presents two scenarios for the world economy and development prospects to 2050 based on the forecasting exercises and analysis presented in a series of papers by Philip Adom, Augustin Kwasi Fosu, Dede Woade Gafa, Zack Gehan, Brian Webster, Ranil Dissanayake and Charles Kenny.
WORKING PAPERS
April 23, 2024
This paper explores the potential implications of a declining absolute labor force on economic outcomes. It explores key macroeconomic variables during periods of negative and positive prime age (15-65) population growth (PAPG). These variables include 10-year bond yields, consumer price indices, fe...
Blog Post
April 23, 2024
The ongoing global demographic transition is massive in scale and likely impact. For most of the past 200 years, the vast majority of the world’s countries have seen population growth, particularly working-age population growth. As they’ve gone through the "demographic transition" toward lower birth...
Blog Post
February 20, 2024
There is some good news on global climate change. The International Energy Agency suggests we are “at the beginning of the end” of the fossil fuel era, with ‘peak fossil’ likely this decade. And the consensus amongst climate modelers appears to be that the worse scenarios historically used by the IP...
Blog Post
January 11, 2024
More than 60 countries have data localization measures in place that restrict or prohibit the flow of certain types of data across their borders to other jurisdictions. A new CGD working paper by David Medine makes clear that these restrictions may have their greatest impact on smaller economies inc...
Blog Post
November 07, 2023
For all of the well-advertised risks of overdependence on subsoil assets, they are an important source of government revenues and well-renumerated employment for a number of low- and middle-income countries. But a global economy moving towards low-carbon production is going to dramatically shift dem...
SPEECHES
November 02, 2023
On October 30, 2023, CGD senior fellow Charles Kenny delivered remarks at the Oxford Martin School, where he is a visiting fellow. His speech, “The future of global development and implications for aid,” focused on global economic change and its impact on the development prospects of low- and middle...