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Blog Post
June 05, 2024
Addressing the unprecedented levels of irregular migration requires a fundamental shift in understanding the problem: People come whenever there are jobs to be filled in the American economy. It is true today, and it has been true for decades. That is main finding from my new study analyzing nearly ...
WORKING PAPERS
June 05, 2024
This study investigates the link between Southwest US border crossings and labor market tightness, measured by the job openings to unemployed ratio, over nearly 25 years (2000–2023). Analyzing monthly data, it finds a strong positive correlation, suggesting that increased border crossings align with...
CGD NOTES
May 14, 2024
This note presents two scenarios for the world economy and development prospects to 2050 based on the forecasting exercises and analysis presented in a series of papers by Philip Adom, Augustin Kwasi Fosu, Dede Woade Gafa, Zack Gehan, Brian Webster, Ranil Dissanayake and Charles Kenny.
Blog Post
May 14, 2024
Richer aging countries need educated young workers to provide the services and entrepreneurial talent to sustain their quality of life. A growing population of young, increasingly educated people in poorer countries, and especially in Africa, need good jobs and greater opportunities. More trade in s...
WORKING PAPERS
April 23, 2024
This paper explores the potential implications of a declining absolute labor force on economic outcomes. It explores key macroeconomic variables during periods of negative and positive prime age (15-65) population growth (PAPG). These variables include 10-year bond yields, consumer price indices, fe...
Blog Post
April 23, 2024
The ongoing global demographic transition is massive in scale and likely impact. For most of the past 200 years, the vast majority of the world’s countries have seen population growth, particularly working-age population growth. As they’ve gone through the "demographic transition" toward lower birth...
Blog Post
March 29, 2024
The US foreign assistance data for FY 2022 is nearly complete, except for some missing Department of Defense, Homeland Security, and Transportation data, and the data reveals some interesting trends. First, FY 2022 did not break the historical record of total obligations, but it came closer than any...
Blog Post
March 25, 2024
A new institutional strategy for the years 2024–2030 was just approved by the Board of Governors at the annual meeting of the Inter-American Development Bank (IDB). This comes one year after Ilan Goldfajn assumed the presidency of the organization with a commitment to establish clear priorities and ...
Blog Post
March 05, 2024
Brazil kicked off the Finance Track of its term as G20 president on February 28-29 with a clarion call for progressive international economic action. Despite some of the familiar G20 dysfunction, the Brazilian G20 gives me a shred of hope. The Brazilians put forward some big ideas.