Economics & Marginalia: January 28, 2022

Hi all,

There isn’t a great deal about British politics that Yes, Minister and Yes, Prime Minister didn’t explain, skewer and turn into a handbook for a new generation in the 1980s. But what made the adventures of Hacker and Sir Humphrey amusing, rather than enraging, was that the stakes were generally quite low: can Hacker get a cook in Number 10, how does his interview on the BBC go; it was never even revealed what his party was (and that you couldn’t really be sure says something else rather interesting about British politics). Had it been set against the background of a raging global pandemic, I think it wouldn’t be seen as gentle but razor-sharp comedy but more like a dystopian horror movie. And that is what we are living through: a darkly comic dystopian horror in which truth is a derided concept, and the only relevant standard for behaviour is “can I get away with it?”. It doesn’t matter how circular the logic, how half-baked the premise (or indeed if there were baked goods at all). We suffer through government by delay, obfuscation, mendacity and bluster. And redaction, possibly redaction above all.

1. While I’m furious, let us turn to another supposed meritocracy: economics publishing. In a discipline in which seminars can turn into bloodbaths in which tears are shed and voices raised over the matter of whether an IV satisfies the exclusion restriction (and god forbid you happen to be a woman, in which case read the above sentence underlined as well as bolded), it’s maddening to see the backroom deals that go into publication laid bare, in public, with receipts. The tl;dr for those of you who don’t follow the minutiae of academic economics on twitter is that a paper was published in one of the most prestigious journals in economics with a confusing footnote, thanking an author who removed his name from the paper. Someone pulled the string and it turns out the story behind the paper was one of threats, rejections and negotiations in the backrooms. Literally nothing about the whole situation is good, except perhaps Andrew Gelman’s measured, but horrified, take on the whole thing. What’s most remarkable is that since I’ve been following this, I’ve heard of other examples just as egregious as this, and then various others that settle into one of many shades of grey between ‘fine’ and ‘anti-science’. And now the listed authors (of a paper which is way outside my wheelhouse—I’ve no doubt it’s very good indeed) now have to deal with this being what their hard work is known for. I know academia has its flaws. But it’s depressing when they’re laid out quite so starkly. Ironically related: here is a different way to deal with rejection (which will come in handy for almost anyone reading this at some point): celebrate it.
2. Let’s wash the taste out of our mouths with something a bit more wholesome: Chris Blattman has discovered Pranab Bardhan’s serialised memoirs, and quotes extensively from some recent editions. Bardhan had an exchange of articles about the practice of sharecropping with Stiglitz way back in the 1970s, playing out in AER. I first read them more than 20 years ago as a 20 year old student, and imagined that Bardhan and Stiglitz were mortal enemies fighting over their theories (I always preferred Bardhan’s explanations, which seemed more rooted in the real world to me). It turns out they were friends; Amartya Sen has a similar story about Ken Arrow in his recent autobiography. Perhaps as the field has become more crowded and stakes raised, norms have devolved?
3. This is truly amazing. Nathan Nunn, Stelios Michalopolous, Elias Papaioannou and Leonard Wantchekon have a new, open access, public course on African History through the Lens of Economics. In VoxEU they discuss its genesis, content and how you can participate.
4. My colleagues Alan Gelb and Anit Mukherjee have a super piece on the politics of fuel subsidy reform and why its so rare to see done well.
5. A very nice paper on how fiscal rules can be used to improve the fidelity of public spending to its targets and increase the efficiency of public action, with evidence from Colombia. I wonder a lot how such policies play out in other settings with different starting points and other methods to keep spending in line, but this is interesting.
6. Always read it when Markus Goldstein summarises a paper: this one is about female labour force participation and how it changes if different members of the household obtain new information about job opportunities for women, summarising new research by Matt Lowe and Madeleine McKelway. The experiment it’s based on is really clever, and worth ten minutes of your time.
7. Lastly, I usually reserve the last link for some frivolity, but this week I have a request. Two years into the pandemic, my wife and I are thinking about taking our first foreign holiday since our son was born… and we are terrified. Chris Blattman’s tips for traveling with a little one (this one is almost 18 months) are great, but what else are we missing? Any tips, perfect locations? Please let me know and I’ll post the best advice (anonymised if you like) on my twitter feed. Thank you!

And have a great weekend, everyone!

R